UK Diplomats Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Policy Papers Show Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.
Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the documents included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles
It warned that military involvement would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The paper adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."
The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
